Posits that bubbles naturally form in different market segments; the key is understanding their origin and timing.

Argues that Nvidia’s 55% net profit margin at massive scale is inherently unsustainable because competitors will target and erode it.

Map out potential disruptions—like chip efficiency breakthroughs and stack‐architecture challengers—to forecast when high margins might collapse.

Use two simple questions—whether a bubble exists and how exposed counterparties are—to systematically assess short positions in overvalued assets.

Tom was surprised to learn ChatGPT’s paying conversion rate is only around 5%, illustrating the challenge of monetizing large free user bases.

Despite massive scale and CapEx investment in AI-optimized chips, major cloud providers are experiencing slowing year-on-year growth as the base size ...Show more

Advertising remains the default transaction model in tech, where platforms effectively sell user attention at a low per-moment value to subsidize free...Show more

When measuring paying customers, include API-based users as part of the monetized base rather than only direct subscribers to capture true revenue con...Show more

To reach and sustain hundreds of millions of users, AI platforms must offer a free model subsidized by an underlying revenue stream such as advertisin...Show more

Before acting on a chart or system diagram, ensure every symbol and data point is meaningful rather than random placeholders that mislead analysis.

Today’s AI expansion differs from the 1999 tech bubble because it’s driven by genuine value creation and billions of paying users generating real ARR.

Founders and investors need sufficient cash runway to support long-term technology bets, because you can be wrong for a very long time before you’re r...Show more

Even if the technical depth of talks is daunting, in-person conferences like NeurIPS deliver immense networking and talent-spotting value for founders...Show more

Current AI investments are forming a self-referential economic loop where companies are funding each other without clear external revenue, indicating ...Show more

Massive Capex and Opex increases by hyperscalers reflect unslakable demand for AI infrastructure, highlighting opportunities in GPU and cloud services...Show more

Despite a high PE ratio near 400–600, Palantir’s enterprise software model could justify its valuation if it sustains robust growth, similar to CrowdS...Show more

AI investment bubbles affect hyperscalers like Google and OpenAI more severely than smaller startups and practitioners, which experience only minor he...Show more

NeurIPS has evolved into a prime recruiting event where sponsoring companies can directly connect with top AI researchers.

Use LangChain’s deep agents framework to orchestrate multi‐step planning, action, and reflection loops in AI applications for more structured reasonin...Show more

Kimi2’s interleaved thinking feature remains in the API docs through version 4.5, enabling explicit thought‐step outputs if properly configured in the...Show more